On 5 June 2025, the so-called ‘trade visa-free regime’ with the EU expired — a regime of abolishing customs duties and quotas, which had been in place since 2022 and allowed Ukrainian businesses to export without additional barriers. This change will have a significant impact on the agricultural sector, the logistics industry and the economy as a whole.
For metallurgy, the privileges were extended for another year, but most Ukrainian goods — in particular, agricultural products, which account for more than half of exports — are again subject to quotas and duties. According to market estimates, Ukrainian exporters could lose around €3–3.5 billion in foreign exchange earnings. The negative impact on GDP will be around 1%, according to the Ministry of Economy.
The consequences for logistics will also be significant. The reduction in agricultural exports will hit road transport, as around 12% of trucks crossing the border with Poland carry agricultural products. The loss of this flow will lead to increased competition for cargo, an increase in empty runs and a 5-10% increase in import transportation rates.
Refrigerated transport — poultry, dairy products, berries — will be the most affected. Thousands of trucks could be left without work every month.
“The abolition of visa-free trade is a serious challenge for exporters, logistics and the economy as a whole. But it is also an incentive for development: searching for new markets, modernising logistics and strengthening the domestic market. Ukrainian logistics is always the first to feel the effects of changes in trade — and it will be the indicator of the effectiveness of the new trade policy with the EU,” says Oleksandr Kyryliuk, Chief Operating Officer of the ZAMMLER group of logistics companies.
Read more in Oleksandr Kyryliuk’s column at the link.
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